The renowned industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is expecting a drop in the mobile phone shipment in the Chinese market in the first quarter of the year. His latest reports of the studies done on the market show that the shipment reduced by 50-60% over the years during Lunar New Year (the Chinese New Year). And, this year China is facing the outbreak of Coronavirus in the country which has killed more than 350 people. All these things are indications that iPhone shipments may slow down for a few months according to Kuo.
The latest report of Appleinsider says that Kuo said in 2019, the smartphone shipments were about 360 to 370 million units in China. “We expect that shipments will decline by 15% YoY to 310-330 million units in 2021 (vs. 330-350 million units of market consensus) because of lower-than-expected replacement demand from 5G models and negative impacts on consumer confidence from the Coronavirus outbreak,” Kuo said according to the website.
So there more reasons for an overall reduction in the shipment of all smartphones in the Chinese market than just the Chinese Holidays and Coronavirus. People are also expecting 5G smartphones in 2021. Some 5G android phones are already available since the beginning of the last years but they haven’t been able to make any big change in the industry. The reason could also be the non-availability of 5G networks in the market right now as 5G with low bands doesn’t differ from 4G.
Kuo said that customers are not seeing any much difference between the available network and the latest 5G network so they aren’t still prepared for replacing their current smartphone with 5G smartphones. But this thing may not be affecting Apple right now as Apple hasn’t launched any 5G smartphone yet. Apple’s iPhone 12 which is going to be released in the last quarter of 2021 is expected to come with 5G support. So coronavirus could be the main reason behind the drop in the iPhone shipment across the border.
According to Appleinsider, Kuo said, “Now it’s difficult to predict the shipments in 2Q20 because of the uncertainties of the Coronavirus epidemic and consumer confidence.” Over 38 million iPhones were sold in the first quarter of 2019 in the Chinese market according to Kuo and it is expecting to be declined by 10% this year due to Coronavirus. The total shipment is predicted between 35-36 million units in the first quarter.
Due to the Coronavirus in the China mainland, Apple has ordered to close all its stores and offices in the nation until February 9 or until further instruction. So once the condition is under control then, the things are going to settle down for the whole industry. Major Chinese supplier of Apple, such as Foxconn is paying attention to the health and checkup at their Wuhan plant.